Its time to shake the tree

Is that 18 months from applicant signing an offer, 18 months from sending in the SF-86, or 18 months from the beginning of investigation? Can you offer any insight into what might be going on for an applicant who signed an offer, sent in the SF-86, and was only contacted by a BI a full 14 months later (and is not 22 months from sending in the SF-86)? Which event would count as the beginning of the process for the 18 month benchmark?