After discovering this amazing site several months ago I’ve become a frequent visitor to read people’s posts and hopefully see what their outcomes were.
The regular forum members do a great job and service for folks like me who have no idea how the clearance process works. That said, most replies always seem to be of the “chances are not very good” variety.
Unfortunately lot of people don’t come back to post their outcomes, but of those that do, it seems like a healthy percentage end up being granted their clearance (either outright or through an appeal). Some posters seem to relish being bearers of bad news haha. They’ll go from “you smoked pot 1 time, how do we know you won’t do it again, you have shown a propensity of breaking the law, etc”. They speak with such authority but end up being wrong ha.
Do you guys keep a log of how many times you ended up being right? Im curious to see batting percentages.
That said, 90% of you guys are super awesome and I know you are simply here to help others. You definitely helped me with my situation - and for the record, almost everyone said I was going to be fine and they were correct.
I think people who get their clearance adjudicated favorably come back to post their update, but for those that didn’t end well they generally don’t come back. Assuming that’s the case, and comments like “while noone can predict, you have a hard hill to climb” are considered “no’s”, I would say 60-70% time you guys are right.
Sometimes they come back when they do not get suitability, and ask questions. Other times they are too embarrassed to come back for some reason and dont report anything. Other times they are granted a clearance and never return, because well thats part of it. Sometimes they return and say they were granted a clearance. I dont think there is anyway to tell.
The art and science of it all can be quickly upset with new adjudicators. Much like a minor admin error on an sf86 being overlooked…suddenly it is stop the press, shred the form, do not pass go…do not collect $200…start over.
I felt reasonably certain over 9 years if a person would clear or not…if they were honest. If they revealed new items, or it was uncovered…or poly discovered…that too throws off the math.
When people swear they have no idea why they were rejected…I call BS. Everybody knows their own sins. Be it drugs, non legal downloads, foreign connections or travel…etc. Tried helping a few with appeals and made them show me the SOR. When I’d ask why they lied to me but clearly explained to the poly folks their multiple drug usages…sheepish expressions…