Will you most likely be denied a security clearance if you have been fired from a job for forging a signature on a time sheet? Assuming there are no other issues.
Hard to say for sure but it will definitely be an issue of interest. Forging a signature does not sound like something that was accidental.
In matters like this I think time is always a factor. If it happened six years ago it will be treated differently than if it happened six months ago, because you would have six years of otherwise spotless behavior 
that would help mitigate the one egregious incident.
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No. There is no single mistake that will stop you from getting a clearance, unless it is a serious felony as outline by most job requirements. Your goal is to mitigate this issue, explain that it was a one-time occurrence, explain that you haven’t been fired from any other job, and explain that you learned your lesson. I had a firing and disciplinary action for inaccurate time sheet, and still got a clearance. Can you prove that you have learned from it? You will have a chance to explain most likely and I wouldn’t worry about it, just be honest.
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Of course forgery and “time theft” could certainly be prosecuted as felonies.